This plot displays the relative importance
of course history for predicting performance at each course on the PGA Tour. The taller the bar,
the more important course history is to predicting performance at that course.
Each bar is the average magnitude of the adjustment, in strokes per round, that we would make to golfers'
baseline skill due to their course history (it is the size of the adjustments that matter, not the
sign). This average adjustment will be higher at courses where golfers
have played more rounds and where there is more variance in the golfer's historical scoring averages (e.g. if every golfer
has a historical strokes-gained relative to baseline of 0, then course history will not matter at that course).
We estimate this average adjustment
using the field of golfers from the most recent tournament at each course, or from the upcoming
tournament if the course is hosting an event in the current week.
Only courses from the 2 most recent PGA Tour seasons are included.
Generally speaking, a golfer's 'course history' is some indicator of how they have performed historically
at a given course. We analyze a golfer's course history by looking at their average strokes-gained
relative to expectation, or baseline, at the relevant course, as well as how many rounds this average is comprised of.
In other words, golfers with good course history are those
who have played better at the relevant course than they have elsewhere. (A golfer's "expectation" at any point in time is what our
model estimates their overall skill level to be; this is estimated using data from all tournaments and without factoring
in any course-player interactions.)
This is a limited version of this table. To access the
full version which includes golfer skill estimates after adjusting for their course history,
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