• Course History Tool
The Importance of Course History
Average course history adjustment at PGA Tour courses
This plot displays the relative importance of course history for predicting performance at each course on the PGA Tour. The taller the bar, the more important course history is to predicting performance at that course. Each bar is the average magnitude of the adjustment, in strokes per round, that we would make to golfers' baseline skill due to their course history (it is the size of the adjustments that matter, not the sign). This average adjustment will be higher at courses where golfers have played more rounds and where there is more variance in the golfer's historical scoring averages (e.g. if every golfer has a historical strokes-gained relative to baseline of 0, then course history will not matter at that course). We estimate this average adjustment using the field of golfers from the most recent tournament at each course, or from the upcoming tournament if the course is hosting an event in the current week. Only courses from the 2 most recent PGA Tour seasons are included.
Generally speaking, a golfer's 'course history' is some indicator of how they have performed historically at a given course. We analyze a golfer's course history by looking at their average strokes-gained relative to expectation, or baseline, at the relevant course, as well as how many rounds this average is comprised of. In other words, golfers with good course history are those who have played better at the relevant course than they have elsewhere. (A golfer's "expectation" at any point in time is what our model estimates their overall skill level to be; this is estimated using data from all tournaments and without factoring in any course-player interactions.)
This is a limited version of this table. To access the full version which includes golfer skill estimates after adjusting for their course history, you must become a Scratch member. Sign up here.